I’ve been watching the Advanced Air Mobility space closely, and it’s becoming clearer to me that the industry is splitting into two very different tracks. After enough conversations with founders, investors, and operators, the pattern is hard to ignore.

For the last few years, most of the attention and capital has gone to the eVTOL companies. Big raises, big expectations, and a lot of hype. And to be fair, some of these programs are getting closer to certification — that deserves real respect. Once the FAA makes its decisions, we’ll finally see which aircraft actually make it through.

But that’s when the real questions begin — and these are the questions I keep coming back to:

• Who are they truly serving at scale?

• What routes actually make economic sense?

• Can pricing ever get low enough for everyday people?

• Is the market big enough to sustain the model?

• And will fully electric aircraft be enough, or will more companies eventually admit the economics only work with hybrid-electric?

That’s Track One — the long-timeline, high-burn, high-expectation path.

But there’s a Track Two emerging that I think deserves a lot more attention.

This track includes:

• hybrid-electric fixed-wing (like Electra.aero’s EL9 Ultra Short, now advancing FAA certification)

• fully electric fixed-wing

• ultra-short takeoff and landing aircraft

• hybrid-electric powertrains retrofitted into proven legacy airframes

• designs that fit into today’s infrastructure

• certification pathways that are far clearer and more achievable

These companies aren’t reinventing physics. They’re not betting everything on unproven architectures. They’re building aircraft that can be certified under established frameworks — which means they can get to market sooner and start generating revenue.

And that matters. Investors are tired of pouring capital into programs with 10–20 year timelines and constantly shifting milestones. I hear this over and over again.

What investors want now is:

• clarity in the engineering

• clarity in the certification path

• clarity in who the customer is

• clarity in the revenue model

• clarity in the messaging

Not hype. Not promises. Not “just wait another five years.”

The companies that win the next phase of AAM will be the ones that can prove they can get certified, prove they can operate, and prove they can generate revenue — without burning billions.

Two tracks. Two futures. And the industry is finally starting to see the difference.

What track do you see gaining real traction in the coming years — and why? Drop your takes from the trenches (founders, operators, and investors especially). Respectful disagreement welcome. 👌

— Phil ⚡

Source Links

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7468277896525066240/

Substack: https://energyverse.substack.com/

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